The concept "Next Step" – A tool for a consultant/ specialist conversation

When sketching the plan for an Artificial Intelligence foresight investigation,I felt the need to create the concept of “The next Step”.

For context let me explain that such a study should start with interviews made by the foresight consultant to a specialist. By specialist I mean someone who knows a lot about the subject, for example, an AI developer.

At a starting point all of the relevant information about AI is in the hand of the specialist, and the consultant only wants to learn from him. But the consultant should never ask something like “When will we have thinking machines?”. I mean, he can ask, but he must be aware that any answer will be extremely optimistic. That are a lot of techniques to decompose the answer, but it’s probably better to choose another route.

Finding the “when” shall be the consultant’s job.

But if the consultant can’t ask “what is happening next”, what can he ask?
This is where the “next step” comes in.

The specialist knows perfectly what is happening and what the next steps are. He knows where he wants to go, and what is being tried to achieve.

After clarifying on the next steps, the specialist can also clarify on some success conditions and turning points. Later, he may gives us some insights on speed and evolution jumps.

By constructing it this way, we encourage the specialist to an objective perspective instead of a science fiction attitude oriented by wishfull thinking.

If, instead of choosing the “next step” method, we ask about expectations we have two problems.

The first problem is that we will have to engage in a conflict with the specialist, because he will start talking about his “dreams” and we will have to confront them.

The second problem, is that by asking him for a constructed scenario, first we will have to decompose it and then rebuild it again.

So the “next step” concept directs the interview in a responsible direction. It allows the consultant to get all the pieces from the specialist, and all he has to do afterwards is to build the roadmap.