In this particular post, by Social Networks I mean every technology oriented for communicating, including chats, blogs, micro-blogging, comunities and specifically social networks.
All of those tend to have a boom period, when is fashion and cool and everybody wants to give a try. This boom period can be longer or shorter according to the experience it provides to the users. The more complete that experience is, the longer it lasts. This is why Facebook had such a long boom period.
But, sooner or later, they all reach maturity, and a lot of users, abandon it, by shutting down, deleting, or just forgetting about it.
In the boom period, the tipycal user is young, and somewhat of a social geek. On the other hand, after reaching maturity the tipical user is older, with a selective and more professional profile.
A good example for this pattern, would be Twitter. Most teenagers had a twitter account sometime, but found it hard to keep track or a visiting routine. Now most twitters are older, with professional motives.
For everyone who is trying to create the next Big thing, this pattern means a great problem. In order to make it popular and be successful social networks have to be thanked for teenagers, but in order to be sustainable it has to have real advantages for grown-ups.
During the 90’s when someone wanted to look into the future of technologies it was common to look at teenagers. It was assumed that what was being done by teens, would later be done by everyone. But nowadays, we understand that teens can not be a reference for the rest of the society as they are mostly driven by excitement, not utility. If we want to understand the future of a certain technology we should look at 35 year old women, who usually can use technologies, but won’t do it just for curiosity. They will use it, when the utility of a certain technology outcomes the difficulty to use it.
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